ARB Price Signals Spur Speculation of 70x Upside in Hodler Digest

After a year of legislative momentum, the US Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act when a cloture motion fell short. The proposal—intended to clarify parts of US crypto market structure—needed 60 votes to proceed and instead received 49 in favor and 50 against, effectively stalling the bill for the current Congress. Republican Senator Thom Tillis signaled that his “no” vote may have been tactical rather than final, indicating he switched positions late to preserve the ability to call a new vote later. Still, multiple lawmakers and industry figures point to an increasingly narrow window for compromise before the legislative calendar tightens further. Key takeaways The Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49–50, preventing immediate progress toward passage. Tillis suggested he changed his vote at the last minute to enable another attempt later, but timing constraints remain severe. Regulators moved quickly in the legislative vacuum: the SEC announced a five-year exemption for limited tokenized US stock trading, and the CFTC provided additional regulatory relief for “passive software” providers. The House advanced separate crypto policy measures, including a committee approval for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” framework and progress on crypto tax legislation. Why CLARITY’s cloture failure matters for crypto market structure The Senate’s decision is significant less for what it signals about individual lawmakers and more for what it delays for the broader market. CLARITY has been positioned as a legislative solution to long-running questions about how certain crypto activities should be regulated in the US. With cloture failing, lawmakers cannot simply move forward through the usual legislative pipeline during this session. Although Tillis’s comments introduce uncertainty—because a similar dynamic has played out with other bills—lawmakers close to the process emphasized that time is now a binding constraint. Congressman Shri Thanedar, a Democrat who backed CLARITY in the House, described the remaining timeline as a major barrier. “There are only 20 legislative days left in this Congress, all of them after the midterms, making odds of a 2026 compromise, unfortunately, very low.” In addition to the vote math, congressional scheduling has created a practical problem. NEAR’s chief legal officer, Abhishek Vaidyanathan, pointed out that the House had already canceled two “sitting weeks,” and noted that the Senate’s state work period began on October 5. With that backdrop, the likely opportunity for a revised approach may shift to the next Congress rather than being settled before the current session ends. Senator Angela Alsobrooks also argued that negotiations were close right up to the moment of voting, but said Republican leadership shut down the effort at the last minute.